Thursday, 17 October 2019

What if Premier League results were aggregated?

A really interesting question was asked recently on the Football365 mailbox - what if Premier League results were decided on aggregate, similar to the knock out stages of the Champions League and Europa League. So, for example, Liverpool's two results against Manchester City last season - a 0-0 draw at Anfield and a 2-1 loss at the Etihad stadium - would result in a 2-1 win, and three points, for Pep Guardiola's side. This reduces the number of results in a season from 38 to 19, and the maximum points a team can earn is reduced from 114 to 57.

Part of the appearance data aggregated here at Irish Abroad is the actual results, so applying this restructured points system to the fixtures of the 2018/19 season results in the following table.

Liverpool are the obvious winners from the new system, finishing one place higher as champions only one pair of fixtures resulting in a loss all season. Manchester City finish in second, despite going the season unbeaten, with a number of draws meaning they slip to second. The big movers on the new table are Arsenal, who climb three places to third in the table. No other team moves by more than two places. While the top half has some movement, nine of the bottom eleven teams are in the same position, with West Ham's drop of two places the only difference to the actual league table.

TeamPoints+/-
Liverpool54+1
Manchester City53-1
Arsenal40+3
Tottenham37=
Leicester City33-2
Chelsea32+1
Manchester United32+1
Wolverhampton Wanderers31+1
Everton30-1
Crystal Palace27+2
Watford26=
West Ham United26-2
Newcastle Utd25=
Bournemouth21=
Burnley18=
Southampton18=
Brighton and Hove Albion17=
Cardiff13=
Fulham7=
Huddersfield5=

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