A disappointing duo of performances

Squad

The omission of Michael Obafemi, both from the original and amended squads, created unneeded pressure and questions for the new manager, and may come back to Stephen Kenny. If things go wrong, his handling of it will be a stick to beat the manager with. Other players were omitted, but also contacted because they were called up by the previous manager, and the excuse that Obafemi did not earn a cap under Mick McCarthy was weak. The striker is a full international, and was one of the top performing Irish players in the Premier League when the competition restarted, scoring against two teams who finished in the top four. Selecting Sean Maguire ahead of him when Troy Parrott had to withdraw due to injury, and then not including the Preston striker in the squad against Finland warrants further questioning. For a manager steeped in League of Ireland football, excluding all LOI players from the squad was unexpected, especially considering they would have better fitness levels than the players from the still-in-preseason English clubs. The inclusion of highly promising, and uncapped, Adam Idah and Jayson Molumby was a reward for both players' performances for their club sides, as well as their performances for Kenny's U21 squad.

Teams

Four of the starting back five were never in contention - the goalkeeper, centre halves, and left full back had little competition in the squad - and the appearance of Coleman at press conferences, as well as being described as captain in FAI interviews led many (myself included) to believe he would start, but he played no part in either game. As has been mentioned elsewhere, Irish players with genuine Premier League class are rare, and to discard one of the few who have played and performed consistently across the last decade was unexpected, to say the least. Considering that the full back did not play one minute across the two games - will he play a part in the three October internationals?
After talking up James McCarthy in the build up to the Bulgaria game, the Crystal Palace midfielder was selected as one of a central midfield trio, alongside Conor Hourihane and Jeff Hendrick, but then all three were dropped from the starting XI against Finland. McCarthy did report to the squad after picking up a knock during a preseason game with Crystal Palace, so it's possible that contributed to his omission in the second game. Of the other two midfielders, Hourihane offered a threat from set pieces, and shot from distance, but little else. Hendrick seemed uncomfortable in the unfamiliar setup, but I'm not sure if he did enough (or didn't do enough) to warrant dropping from the starting XI. Was the change to the starting midfield three a tacit admission by the manager that he got it wrong in the first game? Although O'Dowda was awarded man of the match against Bulgaria, I didn't think he did enough to keep his starting position against Finland. With the three other changes in midfield, I think the manager didn't want to make too many unforced changes. Connolly and Idah performed well, considering their lack of international experience, and I was happy to see them start again on Sunday. Connolly's performance on Sunday made me think he will start. Of the three that replaced them, Arter performed best and his performance should see him start against Slovakia. Molumby showed in passages what he is capable of with some runs from midfield, but didn't show enough of what he does offer to justify his replacement of Hendrick. Brady's assist against Bulgaria, as well as his threat from free kicks, meant he was the clear replacement for Hourihane. His lack of fitness showed towards the end of the tie, and he possibly would have been replaced ahead of O'Dowda if the Bristol winger had not gone down with a strain.

Performance

Bulgaria lost 3-1 to Ireland in a friendly less than a year ago, and only managed one win in their qualification group for Euro 2020 - a 1-0 win against an already qualified Czech Republic - and conceded 10 goals in their four group home games. They did score four goals in those four games, so their opening goal was not unexpected. A lot has been made of the amount of possession that the Ireland team had in Sofia, but it's comparable to possession of their opponents in those qualifiers. From their four home qualifiers, Bulgaria only had the majority of possession (57-43) in one game, the 1-1 draw against Montenegro, who finished bottom of their group. The possession stats in their other three games were 44-56 in the 3-2 loss to Kosovo, 32-68 in the 6-0 loss to England, and 36-64 in the 1-0 win over Czech Republic, so the 41-59 divide in possession was not unexpected. This is a team used to not having the ball at home, and can still grind out results with a lower share of possession.

That was our first loss to Finland, albeit in the first game between the sides in 18 years. During their Euro 2020 qualifying campaign, Finland only won two of their five away games - winning 2-0 against both Armenia and Liechtenstein - and conceded eight goals in the other four games. The 48% possession enjoyed by the Finns on Sunday is similar to what they experienced in their away qualifiers. I actually think the 2-0 win over Armenia in Yerevan by the Finns - an away win in a game where they had seven shots on target, with 51% of the possession, and completed 82% of their 490 passes - is the closest comparison to the Ireland game - an away win with seven shots on target, with 48% of the possession, and completed 84% of their 522 passes.

Results

Both results have to go down as disappointments. There were some encouraging passages of play - during the first half of the Bulgaria game, and a short spell at the second half of the Finland game. We attempted and completed more passes in both games - 549/612(59%) against Bulgaria and 437/522(84%) against Finland - than in all but one of the Euro 2020 qualifiers under Mick McCarthy - 419/526(80%) V Gibraltar(A), 371/515(72%) V Georgia(H), 271/300(72%) V Denmark(A), 484/564(72%) V Gibraltar(H), 251/325(77%) V Switzerland(H), 292/382(46%) V Georgia(A), 255/323(79%) V Switzerland(A), and 410/518(79%) V Denmark(H) - but overall I thought that, even with the majority of possession, we struggled to create clear cut chances. We had three shots on target against Bulgaria, comparable to the opposition in their home qualifiers against Czech Republic(3), Kosovo(5), and Montenegro(4) - in the outlier, England had 13 shots on target in their 6-0 win in Sofia. Similarly, Finland conceded five shots on target in Aviva stadium, which is slightly more than the average shots conceded by the Finns(4.8) in their away Euro 2020 qualifiers - Italy(3), Armenia(5), Liechtenstein(2), Bosnia(8), and Greece(6).
Prior to Thursday's game, I expected us to take at least a draw from both games, so to lose the home game is especially disheartening. The results in the other Nations League games mean we sit bottom of the group, still to face first placed Wales, and now have to get a result in Finland.

Our play off opponents Slovakia had the same results in their two Nations League games - a 3-1 home loss against the Czech Republic, and a 1-1 away draw with Israel - but led until the final minute in Netanya. The play off itself is a month away, and the squad announcement will probably be around Friday, 25th September. The return to full time football in England should see an increase in fitness and performance of the players, but going by what I saw in these two games, I don't see us coming away from Bratislava with a win

* All possession and passing stats taken from uefa.com