FIFA World Cup 2014 UEFA Qualifying Group C Permutations and Combinations

Following the conclusion of the 2012/13 season, qualifying group C remains open, with Germany looking likely to win the group, with only goal difference separating the following three sides. Having compiled permutation and combination tables for previous qualifying groups, I've compiled the same for this group.

First, some assumptions

1. Germany win all four remaining qualifiers:
• 6 September 2013 - Germany v Austria
• 10 September 2013 - Faroe Islands v Germany
• 11 October 2013 - Germany v Republic of Ireland
• 15 October 2013 - Sweden v Germany
2. All teams win remaining games against group minnows:
• 10 September 2013 - Kazakhstan v Sweden
• 15 October 2013 - Faroe Islands v Austria
• 15 October 2013 - Republic of Ireland v Kazakhstan

This results in the following table:

	P	Pts
Germany	10	28
Ireland	8	14
Sweden	8	14
Austria	8	14

The following fixtures remain

• 6 September 2013 - Republic of Ireland v Sweden
• 10 September 2013 - Austria v Republic of Ireland
• 11 October 2013 - Sweden v Austria

The combinations of the possible results from those fixtures are

		Sweden beat Austria	Sweden draw with Austria	Sweden lose to Austria
Ireland beat Sweden	Austria beat Ireland	Ireland 17 points Sweden 17 points Austria 17 points	Austria 18 points Ireland 17 points Sweden 15 points	Austria 20 points Ireland 17 points Sweden 14 points
	Austria draw with Ireland	Ireland 18 points Sweden 17 points Austria 15 points	Ireland 18 points Austria 16 points Sweden 15 points	Ireland 18 points Austria 18 points Sweden 14 points
	Austria lose to Ireland	Ireland 20 points Sweden 17 points Austria 14 points	Ireland 20 points Sweden 15 points Austria 15 points	Ireland 20 points Austria 17 points Sweden 14 points
Ireland draw with Sweden	Austria beat Ireland	Sweden 18 points Austria 17 points Ireland 15 points	Austria 18 points Sweden 16 points Ireland 15 points	Austria 20 points Ireland 15 points Sweden 15 points
	Austria draw with Ireland	Sweden 18 points Ireland 16 points Austria 15 points	Ireland 16 points Sweden 16 points Austria 16 points	Austria 18 points Ireland 16 points Sweden 15 points
	Austria lose to Ireland	Ireland 18 points Sweden 18 points Austria 14 points	Ireland 18 points Sweden 16 points Austria 15 points	Ireland 18 points Austria 17 points Sweden 15 points
Ireland lose to Sweden	Austria beat Ireland	Sweden 20 points Austria 17 points Ireland 14 points	Sweden 18 points Austria 18 points Ireland 14 points	Austria 20 points Sweden 17 points Ireland 14 points
	Austria draw with Ireland	Sweden 20 points Ireland 15 points Austria 15 points	Sweden 18 points Austria 16 points Ireland 15 points	Austria 18 points Sweden 17 points Ireland 15 points
	Austria lose to Ireland	Sweden 20 points Ireland 17 points Austria 14 points	Sweden 18 points Ireland 17 points Austria 15 points	Ireland 17 points Sweden 17 points Austria 17 points

I've marked the possibilities where Ireland finish second in the group in green for clarity.
Note that in cases where Ireland finish level with one or more teams, I've marked the group with yellow. The final group placings will be dependant on goal difference.

The first conclusion is that beating Sweden will give us the best chance of finishing second, and losing to the Swedes will almost certainly result in failure to reach the play offs. Four points from the two games would seem to all but guarantee a play off spot, assuming all other results finish as expected in the list above.

Finally, it is important to remember that the worst placed second team, after results against the weakest team in the group are discarded, will not participate in the play offs. In qualifying for Euro 2012, the worst second played team was Turkey, who had 11 points after their results against Kazakhstan were discarded. Assuming Ireland win their final game against Kazakhstan, the Boys in Green will have six points removed to determine their final position in the second placed teams