Sunday, 31 December 2017

Round up for weekend of Friday, 29th December 2017

Friday, 29th December 2017
Championship
Cardiff 0-1 Preston North End
Greg Cunningham's made his first appearance since August after returning from injury
Alan Browne was booked for the first time since Wednesday, 1st November in his 25th appearance of the season

Saturday, 30 December 2017
Premier League
Bournemouth 2-1 Everton
James McCarthy's start against Bournemouth was his first appearance in the Premier League this season

Huddersfield 0-0 Burnley
Jeff Hendrick made his 50th appearance in the Premier League

Newcastle Utd 0-0 Brighton and Hove Albion
Ciaran Clark made his 50th start for Newcastle Utd

Championship
Birmingham City 1-0 Leeds United
Conor Shaughnessy's first start since Tuesday, 24th October was his first appearance for Leeds in a month

Middlesbrough 0-1 Aston Villa
Darren Randolph made his 25th appearance for Middlesbrough
Conor Hourihane was booked for the fifth time this season and is suspended for the next game

Nottingham Forest 0-1 Sunderland
Aiden McGeady's winner was his fifth goal for Sunderland

Sheffield United 0-1 Bolton
Josh Cullen made his first appearance since Saturday, 14th October, it was also the midfielder's first start in three months

League 1
Blackpool 2-2 Plymouth
Graham Carey scored his 50th goal in UK football

Bradford City 3-2 Oxford United
Canice Carroll scored his first goal of his career

Bury 0-2 Fleetwood
Stephen Dawson made his 100th start for Bury

Oldham 1-1 Bristol Rovers
Ryan Sweeney made his 50th career appearance

League 2
Cheltenham 1-1 Newport Co.
Padraig Amond scored his first goal since Saturday, 14th October in his first start in a month

Scottish Premier League
Partick Thistle 2-0 Ross County
Conor Sammon scored his 25th SPL goal, and was booked for the first time this season

Australian A-League
Sydney 6-0 Perth Glory
Andy Keogh started his first game for Perth Glory since Friday, 24th November

Sunday, 31st December 2017
Premier League
Crystal Palace 0-0 Manchester City
Unused substitute Damien Delaney was named in the Crystal Palace squad for the first time since Saturday, 28th October

West Bromwich Albion 1-1 Arsenal
James McClean unfortunately scored his first own goal in English football against Arsenal

Round Up for week of Tuesday, 26th December 2017

Tuesday, 26th December 2017
Premier League
Chelsea 2-0 Brighton and Hove Albion
Shane Duffy made his 50th appearance for Brighton and Hove Albion, all of which have been starts

Manchester United 2-2 Burnley
Jeff Hendrick made his 50th start for Burnley
Jonathan Walters came off the bench for his first appearance since August

Championship
Millwall 2-2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Shaun Williams started his first game for Millwall in three months, and was shown his first yellow card since Tuesday, 12th September

Barnsley 0-0 Preston North End
Daryl Horgan was named in Preston's starting XI for the first time since early August

Brentford 2-1 Aston Villa
Glenn Whelan start for Villa was the midfielder's 100th appearance in the Championship
Lining out beside Whelan, Scott Hogan had his first start since Saturday, 4th November

League 1
Gillingham 1-1 Oxford United
Conor Wilkinson's strike for Gillingham was his tenth goal in League One

Blackburn 2-0 Rochdale
Keith Keane returned for Rochdale, making his first appearance in four months
Derrick Williams was booked for the fifth time this season and is suspended for the next game

Blackpool 2-3 Scunthorpe
Jimmy Ryan was booked for the fifth time this season and is suspended for the next game

Bury 0-3 Rotherham
Stephen Dawson was booked for the first time this season in his first start for Bury since Thursday, 10th August
Lee Frecklington's strike was his 15th goal in League One
On his 25th appearance of the season, Anthony Forde was shown his first yellow card since Tuesday, 17th October

Oldham 1-2 Fleetwood
Courtney Duffus came off the bench for Oldham for his first appearance since Tuesday, 21th November

Walsall 0-0 Bristol Rovers
Rory Gaffney made his 100th appearance in English football

League 2
Grimsby 1-1 Mansfield Town
Conrad Logan made his 100th appearance in the League Two

Carlisle United 3-1 Accrington Stanley
Jamie Devitt's opener for Carlisle was his 25th goal in League Two

Cheltenham 0-2 Yeovil
Connor Smith was booked for the first time since Saturday, 23rd September

Swindon Town 0-5 Luton
James Collins scored his 120th goal of his career

Scottish Premier League
Dundee 0-2 Celtic
Darren O'Dea came off the bench for his first appearance in a month

Thursday, 28 December 2017

Are birthdays really important - another look

Following on from our recent article investigating the Examiner's claim that your birth month will affect your chances of playing at international level for the Republic of Ireland, one of the issues that we had with the original study seemed to gather importance as the investigation continued, even after publishing the initial rebuttal

it[the initial article] ignores that summer soccer only started in Ireland in 2003, and not all of the players marked as "Irish reared" came through in this system.
With this in mind, we decided to examine the list of player we had included in the study again. As stated, summer soccer was only introduced in Ireland in 2003, therefore it was reasonable to assume that only players born after 1993 (who would be ten years old in 2003, and starting their football education) would have come through the youth setup in that environment. To date, the only players born in Ireland after 1st January 2003 that have made their international debut are Alan Browne (b. 15 April 2003) and Sean Maguire (b. 1st May 2003), and according to poster "Charlie Darwin" on Irish football forum foot.ie, the U19 league was still a winter league when Browne played there, leaving Maguire as the only international to have been "reared" (to use the Examiner's terminology) in the summer setup.

So, bearing these changes to the "development quarter" a player was born in (as opposed to the calendar quarter) how does this affect the study?

As you can see in the table below, there's now a more even spread of players between quarters one, three and four, with players born in quarter two (December, January and February) at a disadvantage when their chances of playing at international level are assessed. However, this quarter does include squad mainstays Shane Duffy, Glenn Whelan, Robbie Brady, Shane Long, Jeff Hendrick and Harry Arter.

Q1Q2Q3Q4
Sept-NovDec-FebMarch-MayJune-Aug
13(25.49%)11(21.57%)13(25.49%)14(27.45%)
Stephen Kelly(September 6)
Kevin Doyle(September 18)
Jonathan Walters(September 20)
Ciaran Clarke(September 26)
Cyrus Christie(September 30)
Seamus Coleman(October 11)
John Egan(October 20)
Keiren Westwood(October 23)
Darron Gibson(October 25)
Alex Pearce(November 9)
James McCarthy(November 12)
Alan Judge(November 11)
David McGoldrick(November 29)
Shane Duffy(January 1)
Paul McShane(January 6)
Glenn Whelan(January 13)
Robbie Brady(January 14)
Shane Long(January 22)
Jeff Hendrick(January 31)
Conor Hourihane(February 2)
Sean Maguire*(May 1)
David Forde(December 20)
Harry Arter(December 28)
Sean St Ledger(December 28)
Andy Boyle(March 7)
Daryl Murphy(March 15)
Aidan McGeady(April 4)
Stephen Quinn(April 4)
Paul Green(April 10)
Alan Browne(April 15)
James McClean(April 22)
Callum O'Dowda(April 23)
John O'Shea(April 30)
Robert Elliot(April 30)
Darren Randolph(May 12)
Wes Hoolahan(May 20)
David Meyler(May 29)
Anthony Pilkington(June 6)
Shay Given(June 20)
Robbie Keane(July 8)
Jonathan Hayes(July 9)
Eunan O'Kane(July 10)
Damien Delaney(July 20)
Anthony Stokes(July 25)
Andy Reid(July 29)
Stephen Gleeson(August 3)
Richard Keogh(August 11)
Daryl Horgan(August 10)
Marc Wilson(August 17)
Kevin Long(August 18)
Stephen Ward(August 20)

* designates player developed in summer soccer

Armed with a better definition of when the quarter in which a player is born, we can now apply this definition across the history of players capped by the Republic of Ireland

Firstly, lets compare the record of players selected by Martin O'Neill to every player capped. There is a slight difference across the first three quarters, with increases in quarters one and two offset by a decline in the number of players born in Q3 selected for international honours.
QPlayers
194(28.14%)
275(22.46%)
373(21.86%)
492(27.54%)

Finally, let's look at players with ten, or more, caps. In our opinion, this gives the clearest indication of how the birth month of a player affects their chances of becoming a squad regular. Those players born in Q1, Q3 and Q4 have approximately the same chance of keeping their place in the squad, but players born in Q2 (December, January and February) do appear to suffer in this regard.

QPlayers
143(25.90%)
239(23.49%)
342(25.30%)
442(25.30%)

As we said in the rebuttal, this does need further study. Of particular interest is how the change to summer soccer has affected player development, is there a change in the makeup of underage squads when you compare the squads from before and after the change to summer soccer?

As we noted, there's only one international player who had the entirety of his football education in the summer soccer era, so it may be some time before an accurate study on the effectiveness of the change can be made.